Archive for Forecast

The power of certainty in an uncertain age (Via Wired)

Posted in Behaviour, Crisis, Culture, Education, Revolution, Society, Technology with tags , , , , , on 06/01/2012 by Living out of Eden

“In speeches I often say, “Wouldn’t it be great if you could predict the future—and be right?” and the audience always laughs. It never fails. Maybe that’s because they know on a gut level that whenever someone says he’s going to predict the future, there’s a good chance he’ll be wrong. (How often do you read the headline “Psychic Wins Lottery”?)

But I think they also laugh out of a sense of delight because they know that if it were possible, it would be amazing.

Imagine, if you could predict the future—and be right?”

The perfect storm

Posted in Crisis, Economics, politics, Society with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on 12/05/2011 by Living out of Eden

It’s not about the movie, but I’d like to apply the concept of simultaneous events adding their forces to create a major one, which consequences will be further more than just the sum of the outcomes of each of them, separately.

An airplane brought down would be an example of such conditions, since being safety measures in commercial aviation more than redundant, the only possibility for such a terrible catastrophe to happen, is the coincidence of many factors at one time, since one of them, even some of them, would not be enough to cause the disaster.

It would be a great exercise to find the “perfect storms” that happened to mankind all through its history, in order to try to prevent future ones occurring, taking out, obviously, those caused by natural forces.

I would say that in the past, scale was a factor that had it’s benefic impact: when two cultures engaged in a war, Continue reading