“Forecast” or what’s the same: causality spread along a time frame


The post of the link above, examines the possibility that in some way, U.S.A. economy might stall due to its’ debt market crash. The two options the text considers for North America to overcome this situation are equally scaring.

Human beings can be classified in different ways, but it’s quite curious that when it’s referred to beliefs, most of those who embrace a religious faith are, usually, the same ones that demand physical proof to accept a forecast of any kind.

We also reckon that a forecast might usually sound more like a guessing than knowledge. However, Physics make forecasts as exactly so as to predict how long a mobile will take to travel a distance “D” at a “S” speed. The margin of error is zero, and we all know there is absolutely no risk in that equation. On the contrary, weather is subject to such an amount of variables that meteorology sometimes appears to be rather more esoteric than scientific.

In a causal phenomenon, there is an unavoidable relation between causes and effects. If one happens, then the other happens too. It’s only a matter of complexity how long it takes between one and the other, but there’s no doubt that sooner or later consequences will come up (you hit a ball, it moves; an airplane runs out of fuel, and though it won’t fall right away because of inertia, it certainly will; if a business is no longer profitable, presumably its’ owner/s will do something to increase sales or will shut it down).

In social phenomena, forecasts result a mix of these two types of causality, existing simultaneously infinite variables but at the same time, underlying infrastructures in behavioural patterns that cut considerably the chances of mistakes.

As an example, in any market a “bubble” is being created and afterwards, increases. We might not be able to predict with accuracy when it will burst exactly, but what we do know is that, as far as time runs out, if the burst hasn’t happened, it will become exponentially imminent.

Many people have the strong belief that as long as there’s no evidence of a certain trend, any forecast is nothing but theory. However, to see or not to see existing hints, is to a great extent, something subjective, whether one wants or not to put them together. When conditions are given for the triggering of a certain process, only the naive ones wait until reality blasts on their faces, to accept the facts.


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